Ragusa vs CastrumFavara: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Aldo Campo, Ragusa
The Footlab AI model makes Ragusa the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for CastrumFavara. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ragusa wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ragusa vs CastrumFavara?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Ragusa (1,621) and CastrumFavara (1,661).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ragusa vs CastrumFavara
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ragusa
Not enough data to predict the Ragusa lineup.
CastrumFavara
Not enough data to predict the CastrumFavara lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ragusa have 1 win, 7 draws and 7 defeats; CastrumFavara have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nissa(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calcio Avola(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Trapani 1905(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Licata(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Igea Virtus(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Calcio Avola(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Modica(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Licata(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Ragusa win, 2 draws, 2 CastrumFavara wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Ragusa 2-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 19, 2025 | CastrumFavara 2-0 Ragusa | Serie D - Girone I |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Ragusa 0-1 CastrumFavara | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 17, 2025 | CastrumFavara 1-1 Ragusa | Serie D - Girone I |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Ragusa 1-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: Ragusa vs CastrumFavara on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ragusa score 0.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; CastrumFavara score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragusa | 0.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| CastrumFavara | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ragusa sit 16th in Serie D - Girone I (3 points from 7 matches) and CastrumFavara sit 12th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | CastrumFavara | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Ragusa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
A question about Ragusa vs CastrumFavara?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ragusa vs CastrumFavara?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ragusa the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for CastrumFavara.
- Where and when is Ragusa vs CastrumFavara played?
- Ragusa vs CastrumFavara is played on November 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Aldo Campo, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.