Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Inverness CT. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Ayr Utd (1,756) and Inverness CT (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Inverness CT have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 2-6 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ayr Utd win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Inverness CT win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-2 Inverness CT | Challenge Cup |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Inverness CT 1-2 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Ayr Utd 1-3 Inverness CT | Championship |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Inverness CT 3-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Ayr Utd 1-0 Inverness CT | Championship |
| May 5, 2023 | Inverness CT 1-2 Ayr Utd | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT on Feb 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Inverness CT score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Inverness CT | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 5th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Inverness CT sit 7th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT?
- The Footlab model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Inverness CT.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT played?
- Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.