Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Miniestadio Cerro del Espino, Majadahonda
The Footlab model makes Rayo Majadahonda the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Rayo Majadahonda (1,980) and Real Murcia (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Majadahonda have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Alcorcon(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano II(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Elche II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Majadahonda score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Majadahonda | 1.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia?
- The Footlab model makes Rayo Majadahonda the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Real Murcia.
- Where and when is Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia played?
- Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.