Reading vs Plymouth: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 28Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Select Car Leasing Stadium, Reading, Berkshire
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Reading. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Reading vs Plymouth?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Reading (1,849) and Plymouth (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Reading have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Plymouth have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Wycombe(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Luton(home) | 3-4 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Reading win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Plymouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Reading 2-2 Plymouth | League One |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Plymouth 1-4 Reading | League One |
| Aug 27, 2019 | Plymouth 2-4 Reading | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2016 | Reading 2-0 Plymouth | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Reading score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Plymouth score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Plymouth | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Reading sit 17th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Plymouth sit 22nd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Reading vs Plymouth?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Reading.
- Where and when is Reading vs Plymouth played?
- Reading vs Plymouth is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Select Car Leasing Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.