Where and when is Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance played?

Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Zions Bank Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance: prediction and stats

MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Zions Bank Stadium, Herriman, Utah

Real Monarchs

Tacoma Defiance

The Footlab model makes Real Monarchs the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Tacoma Defiance. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance?

A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Real Monarchs (1,563) and Tacoma Defiance (1,615).

Real Monarchs win41 %

Draw23 %

Tacoma Defiance win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Monarchs have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Tacoma Defiance have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Monarchs
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Houston Dynamo FC II(away)	0-3	MLS Next Pro
Aug 2, 2026	St. Louis City II(away)	0-3	MLS Next Pro
Jul 26, 2026	Portland Timbers II(away)	0-1	MLS Next Pro
Jul 20, 2026	Tacoma Defiance(home)	2-4	MLS Next Pro
Jul 11, 2026	Vancouver Whitecaps II(home)	2-1	MLS Next Pro

Tacoma Defiance
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 17, 2026	Los Angeles FC II(away)	3-4	MLS Next Pro
Aug 9, 2026	North Texas(away)	1-3	MLS Next Pro
Aug 2, 2026	Vancouver Whitecaps II(home)	4-2	MLS Next Pro
Jul 27, 2026	Colorado Rapids II(home)	2-1	MLS Next Pro
Jul 20, 2026	Real Monarchs(away)	4-2	MLS Next Pro

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Real Monarchs win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tacoma Defiance win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 20, 2026	Real Monarchs 2-4 Tacoma Defiance	MLS Next Pro
Jun 22, 2026	Tacoma Defiance 1-0 Real Monarchs	MLS Next Pro
Sep 1, 2025	Real Monarchs 3-0 Tacoma Defiance	MLS Next Pro
Jul 18, 2025	Tacoma Defiance 2-2 Real Monarchs	MLS Next Pro
Jun 12, 2025	Real Monarchs 2-1 Tacoma Defiance	MLS Next Pro
Sep 14, 2024	Tacoma Defiance 1-1 Real Monarchs	MLS Next Pro

Last archived meeting: Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance on Jul 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Monarchs score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tacoma Defiance score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Real Monarchs	1.3	2.0	1	9/15	11/15
Tacoma Defiance	1.7	1.5	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Monarchs sit 11th in MLS Next Pro (26 points from 22 matches) and Tacoma Defiance sit 7th (33 points from 23 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Tacoma Defiance	23	11	12	33	36	33
6	Real Monarchs	22	10	12	31	42	26
7	Tacoma Defiance	23	11	12	33	36	33
7	Tacoma Defiance	23	11	12	33	36	33
11	Real Monarchs	22	10	12	31	42	26
11	Real Monarchs	22	10	12	31	42	26

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance?: The Footlab model makes Real Monarchs the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Tacoma Defiance.
Where and when is Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance played?: Real Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Zions Bank Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.