Real vs Vitoria Setubal: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 18Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Real SC, Queluz
The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real vs Vitoria Setubal?
Vitoria Setubal starts as the favourite with a 274-point Elo edge (1,880 vs 1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real have 0 wins, 3 draws and 12 defeats; Vitoria Setubal have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Amarante(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Lusitânia(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 25, 2024 | Moncarapachense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Real win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Vitoria Setubal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | Vitoria Setubal 2-0 Real | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Real 2-3 Vitoria Setubal | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| May 1, 2023 | Real 1-2 Vitoria Setubal | Liga 3 |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Vitoria Setubal 1-0 Real | Liga 3 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Real 1-2 Vitoria Setubal | Liga 3 |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Vitoria Setubal 3-5 Real | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria Setubal vs Real on Jan 14, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria Setubal score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Vitoria Setubal | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real vs Vitoria Setubal?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Real.
- Where and when is Real vs Vitoria Setubal played?
- Real vs Vitoria Setubal is played on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Real SC, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.