Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
The Footlab model makes Recanatese the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Foligno Calcio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Recanatese (1,622) and Foligno Calcio (1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Recanatese have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Foligno Calcio have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sora(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Maceratese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Cannara(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Prato(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Recanatese score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Foligno Calcio score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recanatese | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Foligno Calcio | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 57 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
- The Footlab model makes Recanatese the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Foligno Calcio.
- Where and when is Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio played?
- Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.