Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Innviertel Arena, Ried Im Innkreis
The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Ried. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (2,071 vs 1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ried have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Red Bull Salzburg have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 1-4 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dornbirn(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | WSG Wattens(away) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ried win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Red Bull Salzburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Ried 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 Ried | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Ried 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| May 1, 2022 | Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Ried | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Red Bull Salzburg vs Ried on Nov 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ried score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Red Bull Salzburg score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ried | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ried sit 7th in Bundesliga (4 points from 4 matches) and Red Bull Salzburg sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Ried | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
- The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Ried.
- Where and when is Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg played?
- Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Innviertel Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.