Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Lask Linz the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Sturm Graz (2,089) and Lask Linz (2,115).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Lask Linz have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ried(home) | 4-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kalsdorf(away) | 7-0 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sturm Graz win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Lask Linz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lask Linz 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-3 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Lask Linz 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sturm Graz 4-2 Lask Linz | Bundesliga |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Lask Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lask Linz score 2.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lask Linz | 2.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 3rd in Bundesliga (8 points from 4 matches) and Lask Linz sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
- The Footlab model makes Lask Linz the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz played?
- Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.