Match

Riga vs Atalanta: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on December 10, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga

RigaAtalanta

The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Riga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atalanta wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Riga vs Atalanta?

A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Riga (2,037) and Atalanta (2,061).

33%27%40%
Riga winDrawAtalanta win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Riga vs Atalanta

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Riga

4-2-3-1
  1. 10Reginaldo Ramires
  1. 40A. Ankrah
  2. 18S. Oulad M'Hand
  3. 22M. Diop
  4. 99Caio
  5. 8Iago Siqueira Augusto
  1. 5K. Wassom
  2. 23M. Toņiševs
  3. 17A. Salazar
  4. 34A. Černomordijs
  1. 12K. Pirić

Atalanta

4-3-3
  1. 17C. De Ketelaere
  2. 11J. Rowe
  3. 90N. Krstović
  1. 13Éderson
  2. 19F. Kessié
  3. 10L. Samardžić
  1. 42G. Scalvini
  2. 16R. Bellanova
  3. 31T. Kristensen
  4. 77D. Zappacosta
  1. 29M. Carnesecchi

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:01 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat; Atalanta have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Riga
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Tukums(away)2-0Virsliga
Oct 3, 2026Aris(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026FS Jelgava(away)1-0Virsliga
Sep 15, 2026Super Nova(away)1-0Virsliga
Sep 11, 2026Auda(home)2-2Virsliga
Atalanta
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Venezia(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Juventus(away)0-2Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Cagliari(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026AS Roma(away)1-2Serie A
Aug 31, 2026Bologna(home)1-0Serie A

How many goals should we expect?

Riga score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Riga1.91.1510/158/15
Atalanta1.20.967/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Riga vs Atalanta?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Riga vs Atalanta?
The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Riga.
Where and when is Riga vs Atalanta played?
Riga vs Atalanta is played on December 10, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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