Atalanta vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atalanta wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (2,118 vs 1,952).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atalanta vs Genoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atalanta
4-3-3- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 11J. Rowe
- 90N. Krstović
- 13Éderson
- 19F. Kessié
- 10L. Samardžić
- 42G. Scalvini
- 16R. Bellanova
- 31T. Kristensen
- 77D. Zappacosta
- 29M. Carnesecchi
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 02:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Genoa have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Atalanta wins, 1 draw, 0 Genoa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Atalanta 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Genoa 0-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Atalanta 4-0 Genoa | Coppa Italia |
| May 17, 2025 | Genoa 2-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Atalanta 5-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Genoa 1-4 Atalanta | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atalanta sit 10th in Serie A (9 points from 6 matches) and Genoa sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Atalanta vs Genoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Genoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Atalanta vs Genoa played?
- Atalanta vs Genoa is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.