Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Barra Mansa the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Rio de Janeiro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa?
Barra Mansa starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,551 vs 1,424).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio de Janeiro have 0 wins, 1 draws and 14 defeats; Barra Mansa have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 7 de Abril(away) | 2-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Serra Macaense(home) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 1-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 0-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Búzios(home) | 0-2 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 0-3 | Carioca C |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 2-2 | Carioca C |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Mageense(home) | 3-0 | Carioca C |
| May 31, 2026 | Barcelona RJ(away) | 2-0 | Carioca C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Rio de Janeiro win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Barra Mansa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2024 | Barra Mansa 4-1 Rio de Janeiro | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Barra Mansa vs Rio de Janeiro on Nov 7, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Rio de Janeiro score 0.5 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Barra Mansa score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio de Janeiro | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Barra Mansa | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio de Janeiro sit 7th in Carioca B2 (0 points from 1 matches) and Barra Mansa sit 4th (1 points from 1 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Barra Mansa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa?
- The Footlab model makes Barra Mansa the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Rio de Janeiro.
- Where and when is Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa played?
- Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa is played on October 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.