River Ebro vs Cenicero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Miguel, Rincón de Soto
The Footlab model makes River Ebro the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Cenicero. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win River Ebro vs Cenicero?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate River Ebro (1,604) and Cenicero (1,526).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, River Ebro have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Cenicero have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Vianés(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 4, 2025 | Peña Balsamaiso(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Berceo(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Varea(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2022 | Varea(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 14, 2022 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Rapid de Murillo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Calahorra II(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 River Ebro win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Cenicero win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | Cenicero 0-0 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 7, 2021 | River Ebro 2-0 Cenicero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
Last archived meeting: Cenicero vs River Ebro on Mar 20, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
River Ebro score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cenicero score 0.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Ebro | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Cenicero | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for River Ebro vs Cenicero?
- The Footlab model makes River Ebro the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Cenicero.
- Where and when is River Ebro vs Cenicero played?
- River Ebro vs Cenicero is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Miguel, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.