Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga: prediction and stats
Second League A - Division A GoldFall Season Gold - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rodina, Khimki
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva II the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Kaluga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Rodina Moskva II (1,792) and Kaluga (1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rodina Moskva II have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Kaluga have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volgar Astrakhan(away) | 1-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(home) | 3-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kaluga(away) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Novosibirsk(away) | 3-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dinamo Vladivostok(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(home) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(away) | 1-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rodina Moskva II win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Kaluga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kaluga 0-0 Rodina Moskva II | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| May 27, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II 1-2 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Kaluga 1-1 Rodina Moskva II | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Rodina Moskva II 1-0 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Silver |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Kaluga 1-0 Rodina Moskva II | Second League A - Division A Silver |
| May 15, 2023 | Kaluga 1-2 Rodina Moskva II | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rodina Moskva II score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kaluga score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva II | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Kaluga | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rodina Moskva II sit 1st in Second League A - Division A Gold (11 points from 5 matches) and Kaluga sit 10th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva II the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Kaluga.
- Where and when is Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga played?
- Rodina Moskva II vs Kaluga is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rodina, in the Second League A - Division A Gold.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.