Rodina Moskva III vs Metallurg Lipetsk: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Rodina Moskva III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rodina Moskva III vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
Metallurg Lipetsk starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,695 vs 1,565).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rodina Moskva III have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Metallurg Lipetsk have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ryazan(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotor-2(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kvant(away) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Murom(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Rodina Moskva III win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Metallurg Lipetsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk 3-2 Rodina Moskva III | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Metallurg Lipetsk 1-2 Rodina Moskva III | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Rodina Moskva III 0-2 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Rodina Moskva III on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rodina Moskva III score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Metallurg Lipetsk score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva III | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Metallurg Lipetsk | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rodina Moskva III sit 9th in Second League - Group 3 (25 points from 20 matches) and Metallurg Lipetsk sit 4th (38 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 23 | 38 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 34 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rodina Moskva III vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
- The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Rodina Moskva III.
- Where and when is Rodina Moskva III vs Metallurg Lipetsk played?
- Rodina Moskva III vs Metallurg Lipetsk is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.