Orel vs Zenit Penza: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina, Oryol (Orel)
The Footlab AI model makes Orel the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Zenit Penza. The most likely score is 1-1. If Orel wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orel vs Zenit Penza?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Orel (1,518) and Zenit Penza (1,508).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Orel vs Zenit Penza
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Orel
4-3-3- 20A. Luksha
- 9G. Gogrichiani
- 7M. Tarasov
- 14V. Gordienko
- 22I. Stavtsev
- 77I. Shcherbakov
- 97D. Sokol
- 6S. Luzin
- 69S. Cherepanov
- 55D. Kopylov
- 75P. Zemskov
Zenit Penza
4-3-3- 17E. Egorov
- 7T. Kashitsyn
- 13K. Grishin
- 77P. Makarov
- 8A. A. Datsenko
- 18D. Bolataev
- 20A. Dementjev
- 2A. Kulakov
- 29D. Korolev
- 23A. Makushkin
- 1T. Zaynullin
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orel have 3 wins, 1 draw and 11 defeats; Zenit Penza have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(away) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Strogino(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | SKA Khabarovsk II(away) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Shumbrat(home) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FK Spartak Tambov(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rodina Moskva III(home) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(away) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Ryazan(away) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Saturn Ramenskoye(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(home) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Orel wins, 0 draws, 2 Zenit Penza wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Zenit Penza 3-1 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Orel 1-0 Zenit Penza | Second League - Group 3 |
| May 10, 2025 | Zenit Penza 3-1 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Orel 1-0 Zenit Penza | Second League - Group 3 |
| May 5, 2024 | Zenit Penza 0-1 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Orel score 0.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Zenit Penza score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orel | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Zenit Penza | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orel sit 13th in Second League - Group 3 (23 points from 22 matches) and Zenit Penza sit 12th (23 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 40 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 39 | 23 |
A question about Orel vs Zenit Penza?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orel vs Zenit Penza?
- The Footlab AI model makes Orel the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Zenit Penza.
- Where and when is Orel vs Zenit Penza played?
- Orel vs Zenit Penza is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.