Roskilde vs Aarhus: prediction and stats
DBU PokalenRound of 16Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Roskilde Idrætspark, Roskilde
The Footlab AI model makes Aarhus the favourite at 93%, against 5% for a draw and 2% for Roskilde. The most likely score is 0-4.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,990 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Roskilde vs Aarhus?
Aarhus starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,015 vs 1,803).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Roskilde vs Aarhus
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Roskilde
4-3-3- 9M. Veltz
- 15M. Freitag
- 12F. Engqvist
- 77B. Aðalsteinsson
- 6N. Zachariassen
- 10M. Carlson
- 2M. Juhl
- 5M. Lysholm
- 19V. Montell
- 27F. Howald
- 30B. Pená
Aarhus
3-4-2-1- 13J. Serra
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad
- 31T. Bech
- 18C. McCowatt
- 4M. Knudsen
- 29R. Carstensen
- 23M. Anderson
- 3D. Grétarsson
- 14T. Mølgaard
- 25C. Rösler
- 1J. Hansen
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 03:13 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Roskilde have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; Aarhus have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Middelfart(away) | 3-3 | 2. Division |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Skive(home) | 3-0 | 2. Division |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Thisted FC(away) | 2-0 | 2. Division |
| Sep 25, 2026 | HIK(away) | 1-1 | 2. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | FA 2000(home) | 5-1 | 2. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(away) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Gent(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Sonderjyske(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Vendsyssel FF(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | AC Horsens(away) | 2-2 | Superliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Roskilde wins, 1 draw, 2 Aarhus wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2015 | Roskilde 0-2 Aarhus | 1. Division |
| Apr 2, 2015 | Aarhus 1-0 Roskilde | 1. Division |
| Jul 27, 2014 | Aarhus 2-2 Roskilde | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Roskilde score 2.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aarhus score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 86% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roskilde | 2.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Aarhus | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Roskilde vs Aarhus?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Roskilde vs Aarhus?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aarhus the favourite at 93%, against 5% for a draw and 2% for Roskilde.
- Where and when is Roskilde vs Aarhus played?
- Roskilde vs Aarhus is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Roskilde Idrætspark, in the DBU Pokalen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 86% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.