Rotherham vs York: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 3Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)AESSEAL New York Stadium, Rotherham, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Rotherham. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rotherham vs York?
York starts as the favourite with a 281-point Elo edge (1,979 vs 1,697).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rotherham have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; York have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Rotherham win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 York win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham 1-1 York | League Two |
| Oct 8, 2013 | York 0-3 Rotherham | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 26, 2013 | Rotherham 1-1 York | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2012 | York 0-0 Rotherham | League Two |
| Sep 4, 2012 | Rotherham 0-1 York | EFL Trophy |
How many goals should we expect?
Rotherham score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; York score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rotherham | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rotherham vs York?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Rotherham.
- Where and when is Rotherham vs York played?
- Rotherham vs York is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at AESSEAL New York Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.