Saint-Malo vs Saumur: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 6Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de Marville, Saint-Malo
The Footlab model makes Saint-Malo the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Saumur. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Saint-Malo vs Saumur?
Saint-Malo starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,629).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Saint-Malo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Saumur have 1, 7 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pontivy GSI(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Montlouis(away) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Dinan Léhon(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Lorient II(away) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saint-Colomban Locminé(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tarbes(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Bayonne(away) | 2-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Montlouis(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Dinan Léhon(away) | 0-6 | National 2 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Saint-Malo win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Saumur win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Saumur 0-2 Saint-Malo | National 2 - Group A |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Saint-Malo 3-0 Saumur | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Saint-Malo 2-0 Saumur | National 2 - Group B |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Saumur 0-1 Saint-Malo | National 2 - Group B |
| Jan 26, 2013 | Saint-Malo 3-0 Saumur | National 2 - Group D |
| Aug 18, 2012 | Saumur 0-3 Saint-Malo | National 2 - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Saint-Malo score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Saumur score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Malo | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Saumur | 0.9 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Saint-Malo sit 8th in National 2 - Group B (1 points from 1 matches) and Saumur sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Saint-Malo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Saumur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Saint-Malo vs Saumur?
- The Footlab model makes Saint-Malo the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Saumur.
- Where and when is Saint-Malo vs Saumur played?
- Saint-Malo vs Saumur is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de Marville, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.