Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia: prediction and stats
BrasilienseMatchday 5Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Capital Brasilia the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Samambaia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Capital Brasilia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,703 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia?
Capital Brasilia starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,682 vs 1,530).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Samambaia
Not enough data to predict the Samambaia lineup.
Capital Brasilia
Not enough data to predict the Capital Brasilia lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 02:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samambaia have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Capital Brasilia have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sobradinho EC(home) | 0-1 | Brasiliense |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Sobradinho EC(away) | 0-0 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Paranoá(away) | 6-0 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sobradinho EC(home) | 3-0 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARUC(away) | 3-0 | Brasiliense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Aparecidense(home) | 4-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Aparecidense(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | União Rondonópolis(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | CEOV Operário(away) | 5-1 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | Goiatuba EC(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Samambaia wins, 1 draw, 2 Capital Brasilia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Capital Brasilia 2-2 Samambaia | Brasiliense |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Samambaia 1-0 Capital Brasilia | Brasiliense |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Samambaia 0-1 Capital Brasilia | Brasiliense |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Capital Brasilia 1-2 Samambaia | Brasiliense |
| Mar 30, 2021 | Samambaia 0-1 Capital Brasilia | Brasiliense |
Last archived meeting: Capital Brasilia vs Samambaia on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samambaia score 1.6 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Capital Brasilia score 1.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samambaia | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Capital Brasilia | 1.5 | 0.6 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samambaia sit 2nd in Brasiliense (20 points from 9 matches) and Capital Brasilia sit 5th (15 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Samambaia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Capital Brasilia | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 15 |
A question about Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Capital Brasilia the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Samambaia.
- Where and when is Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia played?
- Samambaia vs Capital Brasilia is played on January 30, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the Brasiliense.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.