Samambaia vs Ceilândia: prediction and stats
BrasilienseMatchday 7Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Ceilândia the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Samambaia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ceilândia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,703 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samambaia vs Ceilândia?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Samambaia (1,530) and Ceilândia (1,595).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Samambaia vs Ceilândia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Samambaia
Not enough data to predict the Samambaia lineup.
Ceilândia
Not enough data to predict the Ceilândia lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 03:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samambaia have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Ceilândia have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sobradinho EC(home) | 0-1 | Brasiliense |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Sobradinho EC(away) | 0-0 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Paranoá(away) | 6-0 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sobradinho EC(home) | 3-0 | Brasiliense |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARUC(away) | 3-0 | Brasiliense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Luverdense(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Luverdense(home) | 1-2 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Mixto(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Goiatuba EC(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | União Rondonópolis(away) | 3-2 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Samambaia wins, 1 draw, 2 Ceilândia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Samambaia 2-1 Ceilândia | Brasiliense |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Ceilândia 1-1 Samambaia | Brasiliense |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Samambaia 0-3 Ceilândia | Brasiliense |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Samambaia 3-0 Ceilândia | Brasiliense |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Ceilândia 8-1 Samambaia | Brasiliense |
Last archived meeting: Samambaia vs Ceilândia on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samambaia score 1.6 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ceilândia score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samambaia | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Ceilândia | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samambaia sit 2nd in Brasiliense (20 points from 9 matches) and Ceilândia sit 4th (16 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Samambaia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Ceilândia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 16 |
A question about Samambaia vs Ceilândia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samambaia vs Ceilândia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ceilândia the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Samambaia.
- Where and when is Samambaia vs Ceilândia played?
- Samambaia vs Ceilândia is played on February 13, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the Brasiliense.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.