Sambiase vs Vigor Lamezia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Guido D'Ippolito, Lamezia Terme
The Footlab model makes Sambiase the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Vigor Lamezia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sambiase vs Vigor Lamezia?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Sambiase (1,764) and Vigor Lamezia (1,718).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sambiase have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Vigor Lamezia have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salernitana(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Reggina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nissa(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milazzo(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Enna(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Igea Virtus(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sancataldese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Messina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Milazzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Savoia(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Sambiase win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Vigor Lamezia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Sambiase 0-1 Vigor Lamezia | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Vigor Lamezia 0-0 Sambiase | Serie D - Girone I |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Vigor Lamezia 0-1 Sambiase | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Sambiase vs Vigor Lamezia on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sambiase score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Vigor Lamezia score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sambiase | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Vigor Lamezia | 1.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sambiase sit 6th in Serie D - Girone I (53 points from 34 matches) and Vigor Lamezia sit 10th (42 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sambiase | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 30 | 53 |
| 10 | Vigor Lamezia | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 43 | 35 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sambiase vs Vigor Lamezia?
- The Footlab model makes Sambiase the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Vigor Lamezia.
- Where and when is Sambiase vs Vigor Lamezia played?
- Sambiase vs Vigor Lamezia is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Guido D'Ippolito, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.