San Antonio vs Orange County SC: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Toyota Field, San Antonio, Texas
The Footlab model makes San Antonio the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Orange County SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Antonio vs Orange County SC?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate San Antonio (1,740) and Orange County SC (1,706).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Antonio have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Orange County SC have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(home) | 0-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Miami FC(home) | 2-1 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Louisville City(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Indy Eleven(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 1-5 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(home) | 0-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monterey Bay(away) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Antonio win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Orange County SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Orange County SC 2-0 San Antonio | USL Championship |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Orange County SC 1-0 San Antonio | USL Championship |
| Sep 21, 2025 | San Antonio 3-1 Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Orange County SC 2-0 San Antonio | USL Championship |
| Apr 14, 2024 | San Antonio 0-0 Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Orange County SC 1-0 San Antonio | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Orange County SC vs San Antonio on Apr 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Antonio score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Orange County SC score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Orange County SC | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Antonio sit 1st in USL Championship (21 points from 13 matches) and Orange County SC sit 2nd (20 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Orange County SC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Orange County SC | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 30 | 34 |
| 5 | San Antonio | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Antonio vs Orange County SC?
- The Footlab model makes San Antonio the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Orange County SC.
- Where and when is San Antonio vs Orange County SC played?
- San Antonio vs Orange County SC is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Toyota Field, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots