San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Toyota Field, San Antonio, Texas
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for San Antonio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Tampa Bay Rowdies starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Antonio have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(home) | 0-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Miami FC(home) | 2-1 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Louisville City(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Indy Eleven(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 San Antonio win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2025 | San Antonio 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 San Antonio | USL Championship |
| Sep 17, 2023 | San Antonio 3-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Oct 8, 2017 | San Antonio 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies on Jul 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
San Antonio score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Antonio sit 1st in USL Championship (21 points from 13 matches) and Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 5 | San Antonio | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for San Antonio.
- Where and when is San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies played?
- San Antonio vs Tampa Bay Rowdies is played on September 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Toyota Field, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots