San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Pianigiani, Tavarnelle Val di Pesa
The Footlab model calls this one tight: 36% for San Donato Tavarnelle, 36% for a draw, 29% for Montevarchi Calcio. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate San Donato Tavarnelle (1,669) and Montevarchi Calcio (1,696).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Donato Tavarnelle have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Montevarchi Calcio have 5, 9 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sangiovannese(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Figline(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Prato(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Donato Tavarnelle win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Montevarchi Calcio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle 0-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Montevarchi Calcio 1-1 San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie D - Girone E |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Montevarchi Calcio 2-1 San Donato Tavarnelle | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Montevarchi Calcio 0-0 San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie D - Girone E |
| Dec 15, 2024 | San Donato Tavarnelle 2-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Montevarchi Calcio 3-0 San Donato Tavarnelle | Serie D - Girone E |
Last archived meeting: San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Donato Tavarnelle score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Montevarchi Calcio score 0.7 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 24% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Donato Tavarnelle | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.7 | 0.3 | 10 | 4/15 | 0/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Donato Tavarnelle sit 12th in Serie D - Girone E (40 points from 34 matches) and Montevarchi Calcio sit 9th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Montevarchi Calcio | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28 | 32 | 46 |
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio?
- The Footlab model calls this one tight: 36% for San Donato Tavarnelle, 36% for a draw, 29% for Montevarchi Calcio.
- Where and when is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio played?
- San Donato Tavarnelle vs Montevarchi Calcio is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 24% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.