Sasso Marconi Zola vs Progresso: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Centro Sportivo Enrico Filippetti, Zola Predosa
The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Sasso Marconi Zola. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sasso Marconi Zola vs Progresso?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Sasso Marconi Zola (1,645) and Progresso (1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sasso Marconi Zola have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Progresso have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Imolese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| May 3, 2026 | Progresso(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Imolese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Rovato Vertovese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Desenzano Calvina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lentigione(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Tuttocuoio(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Sasso Marconi Zola win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Progresso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Progresso 4-1 Sasso Marconi Zola | Serie D - Girone D |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Sasso Marconi Zola 2-3 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 27, 2019 | Progresso 3-2 Sasso Marconi Zola | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Progresso vs Sasso Marconi Zola on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sasso Marconi Zola score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasso Marconi Zola | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sasso Marconi Zola vs Progresso?
- The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Sasso Marconi Zola.
- Where and when is Sasso Marconi Zola vs Progresso played?
- Sasso Marconi Zola vs Progresso is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Centro Sportivo Enrico Filippetti, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.