San Miguel vs Estrella: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 1Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes San Miguel the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Estrella. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Miguel vs Estrella?
San Miguel starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,780 vs 1,632).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for San Miguel vs Estrella
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
San Miguel
Not enough data to predict the San Miguel lineup.
Estrella
4-3-3- AAdrián Socorro
- MMarco
- AAlejo
- KKevin Suárez
- VVictor Jesús Lorenzo Lorenzo
- FFede Manzi
- JJaime
- FFran Ramírez
- IIan Bolaños Gracia
- AAythami Artiles Oliva
- AArturo Caballero
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Miguel have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Estrella have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Anaza(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tenerife C(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Mensajero(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Marino(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Los Llanos(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | UD San Fernando(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Las Palmas III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | San Bartolomé(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
How many goals should we expect?
San Miguel score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estrella score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Miguel | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Estrella | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Miguel sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (10 points from 6 matches) and Estrella sit 12th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Miguel | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrella | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
A question about San Miguel vs Estrella?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Miguel vs Estrella?
- The Footlab AI model makes San Miguel the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Estrella.
- Where and when is San Miguel vs Estrella played?
- San Miguel vs Estrella is played on October 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 21, 2026Villaverde NortevsUnión Sur Yaiza
- Oct 21, 2026San BartolomévsPlayas Sotavento
- Oct 21, 2026Tenerife CvsVilla Santa Brígida
- Oct 21, 2026Panadería PulidovsMensajero
- Oct 21, 2026Las Palmas IIIvsLaguna de Duero
- Oct 21, 2026Los LlanosvsMarino
- Oct 21, 2026UD San FernandovsReal Unión de Tenerife
- Oct 21, 2026AnazavsLanzarote