Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia, Santa Amalia
The Footlab AI model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Santa Amalia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Jaraíz wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,238 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz?
Jaraíz starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,825 vs 1,671).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santa Amalia
Not enough data to predict the Santa Amalia lineup.
Jaraíz
Not enough data to predict the Jaraíz lineup.
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 08:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Amalia have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Jaraíz have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Jerez(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Santa Amalia wins, 0 draws, 2 Jaraíz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Santa Amalia 1-4 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Jaraíz 1-0 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Jaraíz 0-1 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Santa Amalia 1-0 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Amalia score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Jaraíz score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Amalia | 0.9 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Jaraíz | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Amalia sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (12 points from 10 matches) and Jaraíz sit 11th (12 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jaraíz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| 12 | Santa Amalia | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
A question about Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Santa Amalia.
- Where and when is Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz played?
- Santa Amalia vs Jaraíz is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.