Moralo vs Llerenense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, Navalmoral de la Mata
The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 61%, against 25% for a draw and 14% for Llerenense. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moralo vs Llerenense?
On Elo ratings, Moralo has 1,908 points and Llerenense 1,811.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moralo vs Llerenense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moralo
Not enough data to predict the Moralo lineup.
Llerenense
Not enough data to predict the Llerenense lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moralo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Llerenense have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santa Amalia(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CD Zafra(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Jaraíz(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gévora(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CD Zafra(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Moralo win, 3 draws, 2 Llerenense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Moralo 3-0 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Llerenense 0-0 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Llerenense 3-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Moralo 0-0 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Moralo 0-2 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Llerenense 1-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Llerenense score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Llerenense | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moralo sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (14 points from 6 matches) and Llerenense sit 3rd (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
A question about Moralo vs Llerenense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moralo vs Llerenense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moralo the favourite at 61%, against 25% for a draw and 14% for Llerenense.
- Where and when is Moralo vs Llerenense played?
- Moralo vs Llerenense is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.