Santa Clara vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Santa Clara starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,059 vs 1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Clara have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Estrela have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Santa Clara win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Estrela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Estrela 0-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Santa Clara 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Estrela vs Santa Clara on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Clara sit 3rd in Primeira Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Estrela sit 11th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Estrela?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Santa Clara vs Estrela played?
- Santa Clara vs Estrela is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Miguel, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.