Guimaraes vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?
On Elo ratings, Guimaraes has 2,095 points and Rio Ave 2,016.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guimaraes vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Rio Ave have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Guimaraes wins, 1 draw, 1 Rio Ave win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Guimaraes 2-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rio Ave 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Guimaraes 3-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| May 4, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Guimaraes 1-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 15th in Primeira Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Rio Ave sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Rio Ave played?
- Guimaraes vs Rio Ave is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.