GIL Vicente vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate GIL Vicente (2,050) and Arouca (2,063).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GIL Vicente have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Arouca have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 GIL Vicente win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Arouca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Arouca 2-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | GIL Vicente 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 27, 2024 | Arouca 1-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2024 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Arouca 3-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Arouca on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GIL Vicente sit 8th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
- The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Arouca.
- Where and when is GIL Vicente vs Arouca played?
- GIL Vicente vs Arouca is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.