GIL Vicente vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1. If GIL Vicente wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate GIL Vicente (2,095) and Arouca (2,103).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for GIL Vicente vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1- 23Héctor Hernández
- 20Gil Pinto Martins
- 77Murilo
- 12A. Lausen
- 86Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 10Santi García
- 39Jonathan Buatu
- 4M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 47Ricardo Esgaio
- 45David Moreira
- 30Lucão
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GIL Vicente have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Arouca have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 GIL Vicente wins, 4 draws, 2 Arouca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Arouca 2-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | GIL Vicente 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 27, 2024 | Arouca 1-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2024 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Arouca 3-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Arouca on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GIL Vicente score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GIL Vicente sit 7th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
A question about GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Arouca.
- Where and when is GIL Vicente vs Arouca played?
- GIL Vicente vs Arouca is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.