FC Porto vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 82%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Nacional. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Nacional?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,404 Elo points against 1,969, a 435-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Nacional
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 19André Silva
- 7William
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 22A. Varela
- 13P. Rosario
- 4J. Kiwior
- 74Francisco Moura
- 20Alberto Baio
- 5J. Bednarek
- 99Diogo Costa
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 31D. Dongmo
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 21W. Kokolo
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Nacional have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Porto wins, 0 draws, 1 Nacional win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Nacional 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | FC Porto 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | FC Porto 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Nacional 2-0 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 13, 2024 | FC Porto 4-1 Nacional | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Nacional 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Nacional | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (24 points from 8 matches) and Nacional sit 16th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
A question about FC Porto vs Nacional?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Nacional?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 82%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Nacional.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Nacional played?
- FC Porto vs Nacional is played on December 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.