Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Jorge, Santurtzi
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III?
Deportivo Alavés III starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,687).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santurtzi have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Deportivo Alavés III have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Portugalete(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Zarautz(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Santurtzi win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Alavés III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Santurtzi 2-2 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Deportivo Alavés III 1-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2025 | Santurtzi 2-0 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Deportivo Alavés III 3-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Alavés III score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Deportivo Alavés III | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santurtzi sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (39 points from 34 matches) and Deportivo Alavés III sit 9th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés III | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57 | 40 | 53 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III played?
- Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Jorge, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.