Leioa vs Santurtzi: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Santurtzi?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,684).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Santurtzi have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Leioa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Santurtzi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Santurtzi 1-2 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Leioa 1-0 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Santurtzi 1-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Leioa 1-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (61 points from 34 matches) and Santurtzi sit 12th (39 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Santurtzi?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Santurtzi played?
- Leioa vs Santurtzi is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.