Durango vs Eibar III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tabira, Durango
The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Eibar III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Eibar III?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Durango (1,735) and Eibar III (1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Eibar III have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Durango win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Eibar III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Durango 3-0 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Eibar III 2-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Eibar III 0-0 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Durango 1-2 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Eibar III score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Eibar III | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (44 points from 34 matches) and Eibar III sit 13th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 44 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44 | 53 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Eibar III?
- The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Eibar III.
- Where and when is Durango vs Eibar III played?
- Durango vs Eibar III is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tabira, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.