Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Jorge, Santurtzi
The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Santurtzi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
Lagun Onak starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,785 vs 1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santurtzi have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Lagun Onak have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zarautz(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 9, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Santurtzi win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lagun Onak win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Santurtzi 0-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Lagun Onak 1-2 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 10, 2025 | Lagun Onak 1-4 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Santurtzi 2-3 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 16, 2021 | Santurtzi 1-0 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | Lagun Onak 0-3 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santurtzi sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (39 points from 34 matches) and Lagun Onak sit 4th (57 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 34 | 57 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak?
- The Footlab model makes Lagun Onak the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Santurtzi.
- Where and when is Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak played?
- Santurtzi vs Lagun Onak is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Jorge, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.