Sárbogárd vs Érdi VSE: prediction and stats
NB III - SouthwestSouthwest - 23Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sárbogárd Sportpálya, Sárbogárd
The Footlab model makes Érdi VSE the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sárbogárd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sárbogárd vs Érdi VSE?
Érdi VSE starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,497 vs 1,310).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Sárbogárd have 3 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Érdi VSE have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(away) | 0-3 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 0-3 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(home) | 0-6 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Budafoki LC(home) | 0-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 26, 2026 | PTE-PEAC(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Iváncsa(home) | 0-3 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dunaharaszti MTK(away) | 1-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paksi SE II(home) | 3-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Budaörs(home) | 3-3 | NB III - Southwest |
| May 24, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 3-3 | NB III - Southwest |
How many goals should we expect?
Sárbogárd score 1.1 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 14; Érdi VSE score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sárbogárd | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0 | 8/14 | 12/14 |
| Érdi VSE | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sárbogárd sit 15th in NB III - Southwest (0 points from 4 matches) and Érdi VSE sit 9th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Sárbogárd | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sárbogárd vs Érdi VSE?
- The Footlab model makes Érdi VSE the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sárbogárd.
- Where and when is Sárbogárd vs Érdi VSE played?
- Sárbogárd vs Érdi VSE is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sárbogárd Sportpálya, in the NB III - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.