Sárbogárd vs Paksi SE II: prediction and stats
NB III - SouthwestSouthwest - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Sárbogárd Sportpálya, Sárbogárd
The Footlab model makes Sárbogárd the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Paksi SE II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sárbogárd vs Paksi SE II?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Sárbogárd (1,310) and Paksi SE II (1,372).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Sárbogárd have 3 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Paksi SE II have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(away) | 0-3 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 0-3 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(home) | 0-6 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Budafoki LC(home) | 0-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 26, 2026 | PTE-PEAC(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Iváncsa(home) | 0-2 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Ferencváros II(home) | 2-2 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Érdi VSE(away) | 1-3 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 2-2 | NB III - Southwest |
| May 24, 2026 | Szekszárd(away) | 2-3 | NB III - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sárbogárd win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Paksi SE II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Sárbogárd 1-3 Paksi SE II | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Sárbogárd vs Paksi SE II on Feb 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sárbogárd score 1.1 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 14; Paksi SE II score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sárbogárd | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0 | 8/14 | 12/14 |
| Paksi SE II | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sárbogárd sit 15th in NB III - Southwest (0 points from 4 matches) and Paksi SE II sit 13th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 15 | Sárbogárd | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sárbogárd vs Paksi SE II?
- The Footlab model makes Sárbogárd the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Paksi SE II.
- Where and when is Sárbogárd vs Paksi SE II played?
- Sárbogárd vs Paksi SE II is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Sárbogárd Sportpálya, in the NB III - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.