Sasel vs ETSV Hamburg: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 34Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Sportplatz Parkweg, Hamburg
The Footlab model makes ETSV Hamburg the favourite at 67%, against 16% for a draw and 17% for Sasel. The most likely score is 1-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sasel vs ETSV Hamburg?
ETSV Hamburg starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (2,018 vs 1,796).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sasel have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; ETSV Hamburg have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Harksheide(home) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Altona 93(away) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Buchholz(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Eimsbütteler TV(away) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 10, 2026 | HT16(home) | 4-6 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | HEBC(home) | 2-3 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Concordia(away) | 4-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Teutonia Ottensen(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Buchholz(home) | 6-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sasel win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 ETSV Hamburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg 4-0 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Sasel 1-1 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Apr 21, 2025 | ETSV Hamburg 2-0 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Sasel 0-5 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Sasel 0-1 ETSV Hamburg | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 25, 2023 | ETSV Hamburg 1-3 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
Last archived meeting: ETSV Hamburg vs Sasel on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sasel score 2.5 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; ETSV Hamburg score 3.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasel | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| ETSV Hamburg | 3.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sasel sit 10th in Oberliga - Hamburg (50 points from 34 matches) and ETSV Hamburg sit 1st (83 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETSV Hamburg | 34 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 126 | 27 | 83 |
| 10 | Sasel | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 91 | 88 | 50 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sasel vs ETSV Hamburg?
- The Footlab model makes ETSV Hamburg the favourite at 67%, against 16% for a draw and 17% for Sasel.
- Where and when is Sasel vs ETSV Hamburg played?
- Sasel vs ETSV Hamburg is played on May 23, 2027 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Sportplatz Parkweg, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.