Progresso vs San Donato Tavarnelle: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore
The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for San Donato Tavarnelle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresso vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Progresso (1,681) and San Donato Tavarnelle (1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; San Donato Tavarnelle have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lentigione(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Tuttocuoio(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sangiovannese(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Donato Tavarnelle score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| San Donato Tavarnelle | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresso vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
- The Footlab model makes Progresso the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for San Donato Tavarnelle.
- Where and when is Progresso vs San Donato Tavarnelle played?
- Progresso vs San Donato Tavarnelle is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.