Saumur vs Avranches: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 14Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade des Rives du Thouet, Saumur
The Footlab model makes Avranches the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Saumur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Saumur vs Avranches?
Avranches starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,629).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Saumur have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Avranches have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tarbes(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Bayonne(away) | 2-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Montlouis(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Dinan Léhon(away) | 0-6 | National 2 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Châteaubriant(away) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Laval(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Bordeaux(home) | 3-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Granville(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Les Herbiers(away) | 3-3 | National 2 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Saumur win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Avranches win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Avranches 5-2 Saumur | National 2 - Group A |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Saumur 2-0 Avranches | National 2 - Group A |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Saumur 0-3 Avranches | National 2 - Group B |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Avranches 3-2 Saumur | National 2 - Group B |
| Feb 23, 2013 | Avranches 2-1 Saumur | National 2 - Group D |
| Sep 8, 2012 | Saumur 0-4 Avranches | National 2 - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Saumur score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Avranches score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saumur | 0.9 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Avranches | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Saumur sit 10th in National 2 - Group B (1 points from 1 matches) and Avranches sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avranches | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Saumur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Saumur vs Avranches?
- The Footlab model makes Avranches the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Saumur.
- Where and when is Saumur vs Avranches played?
- Saumur vs Avranches is played on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade des Rives du Thouet, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.