Selaya vs Guarnizo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Castañal, Selaya
The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Selaya. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarnizo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Selaya vs Guarnizo?
Guarnizo starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,782 vs 1,630).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Selaya vs Guarnizo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Selaya
4-3-3- CCarlos Ruiz López
- GGuille Ocejo
- JJairo Fernández Ortiz
- GGandarillas
- OOscar Perez
- DDaniel Ruiz Carral
- PPablo Herrero Fernández
- ÁÁlvaro Díez
- CChristian Cobo Ortiz
- JJulio Ruiz Barquin
- SSergio Abascal Martinez
Guarnizo
Not enough data to predict the Guarnizo lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Selaya have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Guarnizo have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Naval Reinosa(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Escobedo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Torina(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cayón(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Selaya wins, 1 draw, 3 Guarnizo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Selaya 0-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Guarnizo 2-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Guarnizo 4-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 19, 2021 | Selaya 1-1 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 10, 2021 | Selaya 2-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 29, 2020 | Guarnizo 0-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Selaya score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selaya | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Selaya sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (7 points from 5 matches) and Guarnizo sit 11th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Selaya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Selaya vs Guarnizo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Selaya vs Guarnizo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Selaya.
- Where and when is Selaya vs Guarnizo played?
- Selaya vs Guarnizo is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Castañal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.