Match

Castro vs Naval Reinosa: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales

CastroNaval Reinosa

The Footlab model makes Castro the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Naval Reinosa. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Castro vs Naval Reinosa?

Castro win43 %
Draw27 %
Naval Reinosa win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Naval Reinosa have 0, 0 and 0.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Castro
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 9, 2026Tropezón(home)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
May 3, 2026Cartes(away)0-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 26, 2026Gimnástica Torrelavega(home)2-3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 18, 2026Revilla(away)1-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Apr 12, 2026Guarnizo(home)0-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Castro3410816444738

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Castro vs Naval Reinosa?
The Footlab model makes Castro the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Naval Reinosa.
Where and when is Castro vs Naval Reinosa played?
Castro vs Naval Reinosa is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Castro and Naval Reinosa

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