Castro vs Naval Reinosa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales
The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Naval Reinosa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castro wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,409 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro vs Naval Reinosa?
On Elo ratings, Castro has 1,714 points and Naval Reinosa 1,702.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castro vs Naval Reinosa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Naval Reinosa
Not enough data to predict the Naval Reinosa lineup.
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 05:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Naval Reinosa have 0, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Escobedo(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Selaya(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castro score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Naval Reinosa score 1.1 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Naval Reinosa | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1 | 4/7 | 6/7 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (8 points from 7 matches) and Naval Reinosa sit 18th (2 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 2 |
A question about Castro vs Naval Reinosa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro vs Naval Reinosa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Naval Reinosa.
- Where and when is Castro vs Naval Reinosa played?
- Castro vs Naval Reinosa is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.