Septemvri Tervel vs Cherno more II: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 12Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Tervel
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Cherno more II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Tervel vs Cherno more II?
Septemvri Tervel starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,720 vs 1,547).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Tervel have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Cherno more II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(home) | 4-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Septemvri Tervel win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Cherno more II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II 0-2 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Septemvri Tervel 2-0 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Cherno more II 0-1 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Septemvri Tervel 3-1 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| May 11, 2024 | Cherno more II 2-1 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Septemvri Tervel 1-2 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Cherno more II vs Septemvri Tervel on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Tervel score 2.4 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno more II score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Tervel | 2.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
| Cherno more II | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Tervel sit 7th in Third League - Northeast (1 points from 1 matches) and Cherno more II sit 12th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno more II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Tervel vs Cherno more II?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Cherno more II.
- Where and when is Septemvri Tervel vs Cherno more II played?
- Septemvri Tervel vs Cherno more II is played on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.