Botev Novi Pazar vs Septemvri Tervel: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Botev, Novi pazar
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Novi Pazar vs Septemvri Tervel?
Septemvri Tervel is a heavy favourite: 1,721 Elo points against 1,286, a 435-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Novi Pazar have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Septemvri Tervel have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(home) | 4-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Botev Novi Pazar win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Septemvri Tervel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel 2-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Botev Novi Pazar 1-2 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Botev Novi Pazar 1-4 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Septemvri Tervel 5-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Botev Novi Pazar 0-2 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Septemvri Tervel 6-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Tervel vs Botev Novi Pazar on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Tervel score 2.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Septemvri Tervel | 2.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Septemvri Tervel sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Novi Pazar vs Septemvri Tervel?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Botev Novi Pazar vs Septemvri Tervel played?
- Botev Novi Pazar vs Septemvri Tervel is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Botev, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.