Cherno more II vs Fratria II: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Cherno More Sports Complex, Varna
The Footlab model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Fratria II. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno more II vs Fratria II?
Cherno more II starts as the favourite with a 268-point Elo edge (1,547 vs 1,279).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno more II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Fratria II have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(home) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-6 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 0-7 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Aksakovo(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Cherno more II win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fratria II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Fratria II 1-1 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Cherno more II 1-2 Fratria II | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Cherno more II 2-0 Fratria II | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Fratria II 0-2 Cherno more II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Fratria II vs Cherno more II on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno more II score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fratria II score 1.5 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno more II | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Fratria II | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno more II sit 12th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Fratria II sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cherno more II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno more II vs Fratria II?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno more II the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Fratria II.
- Where and when is Cherno more II vs Fratria II played?
- Cherno more II vs Fratria II is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Cherno More Sports Complex, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.