Serrano PB vs Guarabira: prediction and stats
Paraibano 2Regular Season - 6Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Toca do Papão, Sapé, Paraíba
The Footlab model makes Serrano PB the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Guarabira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano PB vs Guarabira?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Serrano PB (1,540) and Guarabira (1,609).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano PB have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Guarabira have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Spartax(home) | 5-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | São Paulo Crystal(away) | 0-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Miramar(away) | 0-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 3-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Guarabira(home) | 1-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(away) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Miramar(away) | 4-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Cruzeiro PB(away) | 1-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Confianca PB(home) | 0-0 | Paraibano 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Serrano PB win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Guarabira win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2025 | Serrano PB 1-2 Guarabira | Paraibano 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serrano PB vs Guarabira on Sep 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano PB score 1.1 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guarabira score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano PB | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Guarabira | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano PB vs Guarabira?
- The Footlab model makes Serrano PB the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Guarabira.
- Where and when is Serrano PB vs Guarabira played?
- Serrano PB vs Guarabira is played on September 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Toca do Papão, in the Paraibano 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.