Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 24Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)SK Sevastopol', Sevastopol'
The Footlab model makes Sevastopol the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Rubin Yalta. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta?
Sevastopol starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,833 vs 1,675).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sevastopol have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Rubin Yalta have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Angust Nazran(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Astrakhan(home) | 3-4 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pobeda(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nart Cherkessk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Druzhba(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nart Cherkessk(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Izberbash(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala II(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angust Nazran(home) | 3-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sevastopol win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Rubin Yalta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rubin Yalta 1-0 Sevastopol | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Sevastopol 2-1 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2025 | Rubin Yalta 2-1 Sevastopol | Second League - Group 1 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Sevastopol 1-2 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
| May 25, 2024 | Rubin Yalta 0-2 Sevastopol | Second League - Group 1 |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Sevastopol 1-0 Rubin Yalta | Second League - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Rubin Yalta vs Sevastopol on May 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sevastopol score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Rubin Yalta score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevastopol | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rubin Yalta | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sevastopol sit 2nd in Second League - Group 1 (45 points from 20 matches) and Rubin Yalta sit 4th (31 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sevastopol | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 45 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta?
- The Footlab model makes Sevastopol the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Rubin Yalta.
- Where and when is Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta played?
- Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at SK Sevastopol', in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.