Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg: prediction and stats
Regionalliga - SudWestSudwest - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Auestadion, Kassel
The Footlab model makes SGV Freiberg the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Hessen Kassel. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Hessen Kassel (1,946) and SGV Freiberg (2,029).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hessen Kassel have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; SGV Freiberg have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Freiburg II(away) | 1-5 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt II(home) | 3-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(home) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | SV Rodinghausen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Lippstadt 08(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | VfR Mannheim(away) | 0-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg(home) | 3-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kaiserslautern II(away) | 5-0 | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Jul 18, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Hoffenheim II(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hessen Kassel win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 SGV Freiberg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Hessen Kassel 1-1 SGV Freiberg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Sep 27, 2025 | SGV Freiberg 3-2 Hessen Kassel | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Hessen Kassel 1-0 SGV Freiberg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Oct 12, 2024 | SGV Freiberg 1-0 Hessen Kassel | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Apr 20, 2024 | SGV Freiberg 1-1 Hessen Kassel | Regionalliga - SudWest |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Hessen Kassel 1-2 SGV Freiberg | Regionalliga - SudWest |
Last archived meeting: Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hessen Kassel score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; SGV Freiberg score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hessen Kassel | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| SGV Freiberg | 1.7 | 2.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hessen Kassel sit 12th in Regionalliga - SudWest (3 points from 2 matches) and SGV Freiberg sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SGV Freiberg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg?
- The Footlab model makes SGV Freiberg the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Hessen Kassel.
- Where and when is Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg played?
- Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg is played on November 21, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Auestadion, in the Regionalliga - SudWest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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